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The results demonstrate that both data series plausibly follow from the transmission model specified and provide a 95% confidence interval estimate of the reproductive number R0 ≈ 2.4 ± 0.2. Sensitivity analysis accounting for alternative lag distributions from infection until hospitalization and sludge RNA concentration respectively suggests that the detection of viral RNA in sewage sludge leads hospital admissions by 3 to 5 days on average. The analysis suggests that stay-at-home restrictions plausibly removed 89% of the population from
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