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84, 95% CI -1.61 to -0.07). Sensitivity analysis indicated potential effects within mental health and musculoskeletal conditions as well. CONCLUSIONS The results suggest some workers' compensation recipients anticipate step-downs and exit the system early to avoid the reduction in income. However, the effects were small and suggest step-downs have marginal practical significance. We conclude that step-downs are generally ineffective as a return to work policy initiative.Postprint link https//www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/19012286. © A